Shanghai Baosteel Packaging
(601968 CH)
加速東南亞佈局，國企資源優勢逐步顯現
Accelerating buildout into Southeast Asia; emerging SOE resource advantages
BUY (maintain) |
投資要點/Investment Thesis
投资要点/Investment Thesis
公司發布半年報，23Q2實現營業收入20.29億元，同增2.35%，實現歸母淨利潤0.66億元，同減8.82%，實現扣非後歸母淨利潤0.61億元，同減11.46%；23H1實現營業收入37.89億元，同減1.22%，實現歸母淨利潤1.27億元，同減6.74%，實現扣非後歸母淨利潤1.2億，同減9.05%。上半年收入增速略承壓，Q2增速回正，主要受行業市場競爭加劇，原材料價格波動以及巨集觀經濟影響下游需求不及預期等影響。23H1經營活動產生的現金流量淨額6.9億，同比大幅改善，同增343.49%，主要系本年度應收賬款ABS項目提前回款應收客戶貨款7.3億。
H1 net profit fell 6.7% yoy on intensifying competition and weak downstream demand
Shanghai Baosteel Packaging recently reported 23H1 results: Q2 revenue came to RMB2.03bn, up 2.35% yoy, with net profit at RMB66m, down 8.82% yoy, and ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB61m, down 11.46% yoy. 23H1 revenue was RMB3.79bn, down 1.22% yoy, net profit was RMB127m, down 6.74% yoy, and ex-nonrecurring net profit was RMB120m, down 9.05% yoy. Revenue growth turned positive in Q2 but growth was slightly under pressure in H1 amid intensifying competition and fluctuating raw material prices, while macroeconomic factors dragged downstream demand lower than expected. Net cash flow generated by operating activities amounted to RMB690m in H1, climbing significantly by 343.49% yoy, mainly due to customers’ early repayments of RMB730m in the accounts receivable ABS program during the current year.
23H1兩片罐基本盤穩固，核心客戶銷售穩中有進。
分產品，23H1公司金屬飲料罐/包裝彩印鐵分別實現收入35.50/2.30億元，同比分別增長2.01%/下降33.92%，受益核心客戶銷售穩中有進，持續保持產銷量和份額的領先地位。包裝彩印鐵方面，主要受下游需求短期承壓拖累，收入同比下降。公司在金屬包裝領域長期深耕，提供快速響應及差異化產品，與可口可樂、百事、雪花、百威、嘉士伯、青島、王老吉、旺旺等國內外知名快消品牌核心客戶，建立了戰略合作關係。
Two-piece cans: solid fundamentals in H1; steady sales to core customers
By product category, Baosteel’s beverage cans/color-printed packaging metal generated revenue of RMB3.55bn/230m in 23H1, +2.01%/-33.92% yoy. With sales to core customers holding steady, the company maintained its leading position in terms of production, sales and market share. Color-printed packaging metal revenue fell yoy when short-term pressure dragged downstream demand. As an experienced metal packaging producer, Baosteel provides rapid response and product differentiation, and has formed strategic cooperative ties with core customers among well-known Chinese and foreign fast-moving consumer goods brands, including Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Snowflake, Budweiser, Carlsberg, Qingdao, Wong Lao Kat and Want Want.
持續推動境外業務發展，加快海外產能擴張。
2023年，公司推進“內外聯動”戰略實施，加快國內國外戰略佈局，新建項目與擴容項目，優化產品結構。在國內，公司在東部、南部、北部、中部、西部等各地均設立了生產基地。在海外，公司積極響應“一帶一路”倡議，立足國際化戰略，近期已專門成立海外事業部，加快推進國際化發展，跟隨品牌客戶開拓海外市場，發展新客戶。
Globalization drive: accelerating foreign market production capacity expansion
Baosteel promoted and rolled out an internal-external linkage strategy this year, accelerating its buildout in China and overseas, including new projects and expansion projects, while optimizing its product structure. In China, it established production bases in the east, south, north, central, west and other places. Internationally, it responded to the country’s Belt and Road initiative and recently established a dedicated global business department under its globalization strategy to drive export market development, explore foreign markets and brand customers, and develop new customers.
盈利能力穩中有升，費用管控有效。
盈利能力方面，23H1公司毛利率為9.16%，同增0.48pct，盈利水平提升，主要系原材料價格同比回落，23H1銷售/管理/研發/財務費用率分別為1.13%/2.66%/0.1%/0.17%，同比分別變動+0.2pct/+0.47pct/-0.12pct/-0.3pct，公司歸母淨利率為3.36%，同減0.2pct。
Steady growth in profitability and effective cost control
A granular look at profitability in 23H1 shows rising gross margin at 9.16%, up 0.48ppt yoy. The increase was mainly due to falling raw material prices on a yoy basis. Sales/ management/R&D/financial expense ratios arrived at 1.13/2.66/0.1/ 0.17% in 23H1, changing +0.2/+0.47/-0.12/-0.3ppt yoy. Net margin was 3.36%, down 0.2ppt yoy.
投資建議/Investment Ideas
維持盈利預測，維持“買入”評級。
公司是國內金屬包裝龍頭企業，長期聚焦國內二片罐市場，近年來業務佈局持續擴張，我們預計公司2023-2025年EPS分別為0.27/0.33/0.37元/股，歸母淨利潤分別為3.05/3.74/4.23億元，同比增長13.6%/22.9%/12.9%，維持“買入”評級。
Forecast and risks
As a leading Chinese metal packaging producer, Baosteel has long focused on the domestic two-piece cans business and has expanded its business network in recent years. We forecast EPS at RMB0.27/0.33/0.37 and net profit at RMB305m/374m/423m in 2023/24/25E, up 13.6/22.9/12.9%. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.
風險提示：巨集觀環境及政策變化風險；原材料價格大幅波動風險；下游需求承壓；客戶集中度較高風險。
Risks include: the impact of macro environment and policy changes; significant fluctuations in raw material prices; downstream demand pressures; and high customer concentration risks.
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